For sellers · Harrison & Jackson counties

What is your Biloxi home really worth right now? Why Zillow isn't enough.

Straight answer: your home is worth what a qualified buyer will actually pay for it in this market, and the number on Zillow is a starting point, not that price. Zillow's own published figures say its estimate misses by a median of about 7 percent for homes that are not on the market, which on a $300,000 house is roughly $21,000 in either direction. The real number comes from what comparable homes have recently sold for, adjusted for your property's specifics, and on the Coast those specifics include flood zone, elevation, insurance cost, construction date, and condition.

This post is written for homeowners in Biloxi, Gulfport, Ocean Springs, Long Beach, Pass Christian, and the rest of Harrison and Jackson counties who are wondering what their house would bring if they listed it. It walks the current market data, explains what a Zestimate can and cannot see, and shows you how a real valuation is built, with the sources to verify every figure. Nothing here is a quote for your property: the only number that matters for your sale is the one a buyer puts in an offer, and the only way to get that is to put the house in front of the market.

Published: October 9, 2026
For: Home sellers · Harrison & Jackson counties
Reading time: About 8 minutes

The Biloxi Lighthouse, photographed by Judy Atherton from the steps of the Biloxi Visitors Center — The Biloxi Lighthouse. Photo: Judy Atherton.

01 · The market first

What the market says right now

Before any valuation talk, here is where the two coastal counties actually stand in the most recent published figures. The numbers vary by source and by month, which is the first lesson of pricing: market data is context, not a contract.

Area	Median sale price	Median $/sq ft	Pace	Sale-to-list
Biloxi (Harrison County)	About $300,000 (Redfin, December 2025, up 20.9% year over year); other trackers put the recent median between about $270,000 and $295,000	About $145 (Redfin, down 0.3% year over year)	About 66 to 67 median days on market (Redfin); one tracker reports 90 days	About 97%, homes selling roughly 3% below list (Redfin)
Ocean Springs (Jackson County)	About $320,000 (Redfin, January 2026); a February 2026 local market update put the sold median near $265,000	About $173 (Redfin, up 6.1% year over year)	About 37 median days on market (Redfin, June 2026)	About 96.8% (Redfin, June 2026)
Harrison County overall	About $250,000 (Redfin, December 2025)	Not published in the sources used here	About 75 median days on market (Realtor.com market-hotness data, March 2026)	About 97.4% (Redfin, December 2025)

Sources: Redfin, Realtor.com market-hotness data, Houzeo, and Resideline, with the reporting windows noted in each row. Figures vary by source and by month, so treat them as rough orientation and nothing more. Links are in the sources section.

What this means for your value question

Homes in both counties are selling close to their list prices, and the market is competitive but no longer the frenzy of a couple of years ago. That means pricing is doing more work than it used to: get the list price right and you attract the buyers and the offers; get it wrong and the house sits, and a stale listing is its own price cut. The data tells you which direction the market is leaning, and the direction matters more than any single median.

02 · The Zestimate

Why the Zestimate is a starting point, not a price

The Zestimate is a useful free tool, and it is the first thing most sellers check. The problem is treating it as the answer, because the company that makes it publishes the reasons it cannot be. Three things worth knowing before you let that number set your expectations:

The error Zillow publishes

Zillow's own figures put the Zestimate's median error at about 1.9 percent for homes currently on the market and about 7.0 percent for off-market homes, nationwide and varying by metro. Median means half of homes fall inside that margin and half fall outside it. On a $300,000 house that is not listed, 7 percent is roughly $21,000 in either direction, and the error runs larger for unique properties.

What Zillow says it is

Zillow describes the Zestimate as its estimate of a home's market value, computed from public records, MLS data, and user-submitted facts through a proprietary model. It also says the Zestimate is not an appraisal and should be supplemented with additional research for buying, selling, or lending decisions. That is the company's own description of its own product.

The band behind the number

Zillow reports that in major metros, on-market Zestimates fall within 20 percent of the actual selling price more than 99 percent of the time. A 20 percent band on a $300,000 house is $60,000 wide. That is useful orientation about where a house sits in the market, and it is far too wide to be a price.

The practical takeaway

A Zestimate can tell you whether your house sits in the general ballpark of your market. It cannot tell you what your house is worth, because it works from records, not from your property. On the Coast the gap between the estimate and the evidence is wider than average, for the reasons in the next section.

03 · The Coast-specific factors

What the algorithm cannot see on the Coast

Every one of these factors can move a Gulf Coast price by more than the Zestimate's own error band, and none of them are in the public records an automated model works from. This is why a Biloxi or Ocean Springs house needs a human reading of the evidence, not just a screen.

Flood zone and elevation

Whether the house sits in a FEMA flood zone, and whether it has an elevation certificate, changes what insurance costs and which buyers can qualify. Two houses a block apart can sit in different zones, so the flood map for your exact address is a value input, not a neighborhood rumor. The flood zones guide on this site explains how to read your map.

The insurance stack

Coastal owners typically carry wind and flood policies on top of homeowners coverage, and the annual premium difference between two similar houses can be thousands of dollars. Buyers see that number in their own quotes, and they price it into what they offer. The three-policy problem guide walks the mechanics.

Construction date and the 2006 divide

Homes built after the 2006 code update were built to a stronger wind standard, and that shows up in insurance quotes and buyer confidence. A pre-2006 home is not a bad house; it is a house with a different insurance and disclosure conversation.

The title-level flood covenant

Some Coast properties carry a permanent flood insurance obligation tied to a post-Katrina rebuild grant, independent of the current flood zone. It is confirmed only in that property's actual title work, and it can change what a buyer can afford to carry. If your house has one, no automated estimate will ever know.

Waterfront, views, and lot

A canal lot, a bay view, marsh frontage, or a deep lot moves price more than any automated model can see. These are the differences that make two comparable houses sell for very different numbers.

Condition

Kitchens, baths, roofs, and the cheap coastal tells: mildew, musty air, peeling paint. Condition is the biggest thing a model cannot see, and it is the most fixable. The fix-up post on this site has the full audit.

What the model cannot see in time

Pending sales, expired listings, days on market, and the actual terms of your neighbor's sale. A model trained on records is always looking at a slightly older version of the market than the agents working it weekly.

04 · The real tools

How a real valuation is built

Two professional tools do the work the algorithm cannot, and they answer different questions. Knowing which is which keeps you from confusing a pricing tool with a lending tool.

The CMA

The broker's market analysis

A broker pulls the recent solds in your area, the active competition, and the pending sales, then adjusts for differences: square footage, condition, lot, flood zone, upgrades. The result is a recommended list price range and a strategy for how to enter the market. It is the pricing tool, and it is free when you are interviewing listing agents.

The appraisal

The lender's number

A licensed appraiser visits the house and forms an opinion of value the lender uses to decide how much it will lend. In Mississippi a standard single-family appraisal typically costs about $400 to $700, with FHA and VA appraisals a bit more, and the process usually takes one to two weeks from order to report. The appraisal protects the lender, not the seller, but it becomes the buyer's ceiling in a financed deal.

Three numbers, three jobs

The Zestimate orients you, the CMA positions you, and the appraisal protects the lender. When you sell, the number that actually matters is the one on the contract, which comes from pricing the house to the market and negotiating the offers. Get the first two before you list; the third happens after you have an offer.

05 · Reading the evidence

Reading a CMA on the Coast

A CMA is only as good as the comparables it uses, and on the Coast the comparables need more care than anywhere inland. Three things separate a useful CMA from a spreadsheet:

The comps that matter are in the same flood and insurance bracket

Two houses in the same ZIP code can sit in different flood zones with different insurance costs, and that difference changes what buyers can afford to offer. A good Coast CMA groups the evidence by what the property actually costs to own, not just by geography.

The adjustments that matter here

Flood zone, elevation, insurance cost, construction date, waterfront, condition, and lot. These are the lines a broker adjusts between your house and the solds, and they are the reason a price-per-square-foot average alone is never a price.

A comp that looks like your house may not be a comp at all

If the sale down the street is in a different flood zone, or on a different insurance bracket, or was a distressed or cash transaction, it tells you less than it seems to. The evidence that matters is recent, arms-length, and comparable on the things that actually cost money to own on the Coast.

What to ask for

Ask any listing agent to show you the actual solds behind their recommended price: the addresses, the sale dates, the prices, and the adjustments. If the evidence is thin, ask why. A broker who cannot explain the number they put on your house should not be the one pricing it.

06 · The short version

If you remember nothing else

The Zestimate is orientation, not a price. Zillow’s own published median error is about 1.9 percent for homes on the market and about 7 percent for off-market homes.
The real number comes from recent solds, adjusted for your property, in your market, not from an algorithm’s guess.
On the Coast, flood zone, elevation, insurance cost, construction date, and condition move price more than any model can see.
Get three numbers before you list: the Zestimate for context, a broker’s CMA for pricing, and an appraisal when a lender is involved.
Price by what buyers actually paid recently, not by what you need from the sale or what the app says.
Ask to see the solds yourself. A good listing agent will show you the evidence, and you should check it.

07 · Quick answers

The value questions sellers ask most

Direct answer first, reasoning after, and the sources to check yourself.

How accurate is the Zestimate for my house?

Zillow's own published figures say the Zestimate has a median error of about 1.9 percent for homes on the market and about 7 percent for off-market homes, and the median means half of homes fall outside those margins. On a $300,000 house that is not listed, 7 percent is about $21,000 in either direction, and the error can be larger for unique or coastal properties. It is a starting point, not a price, and Zillow says so itself.

Why does Zillow say my house is worth X when my neighbor’s just sold for Y?

The Zestimate blends public records, tax data, and MLS history through a model. It cannot see your renovation, your condition, your flood zone, your view, or the terms of your neighbor's sale, and two houses that look alike on paper can legitimately sell for different amounts when insurance cost and flood exposure differ. The gap between the estimate and the evidence is normal, and it is exactly why the solds matter more than the app.

Should I price my listing at the Zestimate?

Usually not alone. Pricing is set by what recent buyers paid for comparable homes, adjusted for your property's specifics, and by the active competition your house will be compared against. A broker's CMA built from the Coast market is the better pricing tool, and the Zestimate is one input among several. Price to the evidence, not to a number on a screen.

What is the difference between a CMA and an appraisal?

A CMA is a broker's market analysis used to set a list price; an appraisal is a licensed appraiser's opinion of value used by a lender to decide how much to lend. They use similar evidence but answer different questions: what to list at versus what a lender will lend against. You can get a CMA before you list; the appraisal usually happens after you have a financed offer.

How much does an appraisal cost in Mississippi?

A standard single-family appraisal typically runs about $400 to $700 in Mississippi, with FHA and VA appraisals a bit more, and the process usually takes one to two weeks from the lender's order to the final report. The fee is paid by whoever the contract says, commonly the buyer in a financed sale.

Go deeper

Judy Atherton

Broker Associate with eXp Realty, Mississippi License B-14728, with more than 20 years of Gulf Coast real estate experience and a professional background in banking and finance. Valuing a Coast home means reading flood maps, insurance files, and solds together, and that is the part of the job her background covers. Her credentials are published here so you can weigh the source of the information, not to sell you anything.

JudyAtherton.com Email Judy

Sources and verification notes

This post follows the same discipline as the rest of the site: verified claims with their caveats intact, and no invented figures. Market medians, days on market, sale-to-list ratios, and price-per-square-foot figures are cited to the most recent published reporting windows and change constantly. Zestimate accuracy figures are Zillow's own published numbers. Appraisal costs and timelines are cited to current Mississippi cost surveys. Nothing here is an appraisal, a quote for your property, or legal, tax, insurance, or financial advice.

If a detail matters to your sale, click through and verify it yourself. Verification is the point of this site.

Curious what your house would actually bring?

Bring me the address and I will show you the evidence

The honest answer to what your house is worth comes from the property, not the category, and it changes with the market. I will pull the recent solds for your area, walk the coastal factors that move your price, and show you the range and the reasoning behind it. If the number on Zillow has been bugging you, this is the way to check it against reality. No obligation, no pressure, no email list.

(228) 697-1803 Judy.Atherton@eXpRealty.com